Next 10 years 第二个十年

域名买完才明白，真正的功课从那一刻才开始。服务器、DNS、SSL、备案……那几年我基本上是用业余时间，从零学一套自己并不打算以此为业的电脑系统。连备案怎么填、管局要什么材料，最后都是花钱请人帮忙跑通的。就像一个兴冲冲拿到钥匙的人，推开门才发现房子是毛坯。Only after buying the domain did I realize the real work began at that moment. Servers, DNS, SSL, ICP filing… For years I used spare time to learn a computer system from scratch—never intending it as my profession. Even the filing forms and required documents, I eventually paid someone to handle. Like a man who eagerly gets the keys, pushes the door open, and finds a bare concrete shell.

后来房子要”住”。总想着用不同的文章去点缀它、填充它，让它别那么空。于是 WordPress 在升级，主题在升级，PHP 在升级，插件也在升级。每一次点下”更新”，手指都要停一停——怕它崩，又怕不更就漏洞。像个刚当妈的人，怕冻着 TA，又怕热着 TA。Then the house needed to be lived in. I kept wanting to decorate it with different articles, to fill the emptiness. So WordPress upgraded, themes upgraded, PHP upgraded, plugins upgraded. Every time I clicked “Update,” my finger would pause—afraid it would crash, yet afraid of leaving vulnerabilities. Like a new mother, afraid of letting it freeze, yet afraid of overheating it.

对功能的渴望越重，”免费”的插件就越眼花缭乱。装得越多，彼此就越拧巴；插件升级完，又和三年前的主题说不上话。维护的账一天天累加，我才读懂什么叫作茧自缚——那茧，是自己一层层缠上去的。The stronger the desire for features, the more dazzling the “free” plugins became. The more I installed, the more they clashed; after upgrades, they couldn’t even talk to the three-year-old theme. As maintenance costs piled up day by day, I finally understood what it means to spin a cocoon around oneself—that cocoon was wrapped layer by layer by my own hands.

写下的东西多了，年月久了，反而舍不得拆。哪怕域名费、服务器费一年年往上走，也还是续。直到这时候我才真正明白商业里那两个词：沉没成本，和粘性。纸上谈兵时觉得那是别人的弱点，轮到自己，才知道它有多温柔、多牢固。Having written more over the years, I became reluctant to tear it down. Even as domain and server fees rose year after year, I kept renewing. Only then did I truly understand those two words in business: sunk cost, and stickiness. In theory they seemed like others’ weaknesses; when it was my turn, I learned how gentle and firm they really are.

转折来得晚，但总算来了。某天读到巴菲特和芒格讲投资，才惊觉互联网这么大，我居然这么晚才走进这间屋子。The turning point came late, but it came. One day reading Buffett and Munger on investing, I was stunned by how vast the internet is and how late I walked into this room.

“A year in which you do not change your mind on some big idea that is important to you is a wasted year.”—查理·芒格，2004 年 Wesco Financial 帕萨迪纳年会 Charlie Munger, 2004 Wesco Financial Annual Meeting, Pasadena

简化生活，简化决策，才慢慢从一句漂亮话，变成我思维里的一根骨头。爱因斯坦那句大意是：凡事当尽可能简单，但不能更简单。于是我停掉了那些华而不实的插件，让这个站，轻一点走。Simplifying life and decisions slowly turned from a nice phrase into a bone in my thinking. Einstein’s quote, roughly: everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler. So I shut down those flashy plugins, letting this site travel a little lighter.

十年间沧海桑田。微博、微信、博客……世界已经拐进了 AI 的弯道。我的兴趣也从供应商全生命周期管理，延伸到了投资。旁人看去八竿子打不着，我自己清楚：底下的活儿是同一件——把一件事尽可能完整地看懂，在技术的硬和人性的软之间，找个能站住的平衡点。A decade brings immense changes. Weibo, WeChat, blogs… the world has already turned into the curve of AI. My interests extended from Supplier Lifecycle Management to investing. To others they seem worlds apart; I know clearly the underlying work is the same—understanding something as completely as possible, finding a stable balance between the hardness of technology and the softness of human nature.

所以在建站将近十年的时候，主页里多出了第二章节：价值投资。So as the site approaches its tenth year, a second section appeared on the homepage: Value Investing.

我想在这块试着写写这些（慢慢来，不赶）Here I want to try writing about these (taking it slow):

能力圈 —— 知道自己不知道什么，比知道什么更值钱 Circle of Competence — Knowing what you don’t know is worth more than knowing what you do.

护城河 —— 一门生意凭什么十年后还在 Moat — What makes a business still standing ten years from now.

长期持有 —— 以 5 年、10 年为单位看一件事 Long-term Holding — Measuring things in units of 5 to 10 years.

人性那一关 —— 估值模型人人能学，贪惧没人能毕业 The Human Factor — Valuation models anyone can learn; greed and fear, no one graduates from.

有人说互联网上的站点大多是短命的：域名忘了续，热情烧干了，技术栈没人管了，被黑、被挂马、被搜索引擎遗忘；又或者一改版，旧文全成 404，十年权重一夜归零。They say most sites on the internet are short-lived: domains forgotten to renew, passion burned out, tech stacks abandoned, hacked, injected with malware, forgotten by search engines; or a redesign that turns every old article into a 404, erasing a decade of authority overnight.

可我越来越信另一件事：真正长久的东西，本来就要以 5～10 年为单位。芒格的弟子李录，公开的大场面演讲大约五年才一次；他谈中国和世界的变化，也习惯用十年去量。But I believe in something else: truly lasting things are measured in 5 to 10 years by nature. Li Lu, Munger’s disciple, gives major public speeches roughly once every five years; when he talks about China and the world’s changes, he measures them in decades.

那就再续一个十年吧。So here’s to another decade.

愿这间老房子，还在。May this old house still stand.